Consequences Of Turkish War Against Syria
October 23, 2012
Turkey unlikely to wage a war against Syria
By Yu Yi
Edited by RR
With the authorization of the Turkish parliament on the use of force and the support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), war is most likely to break out.
[A]s allies of Syria, Iran, Russia and Iraq will not stand idle.
Syria still has a strong military capability, so Turkey must be ready to endure the possible devastating consequences if war does break out.
Whether the limited military conflict along the Syrian-Turkish border will evolve into a war has drawn wide attention around the world.
Some media outlets said that Turkey has always been supporting Syrian rebels resorting to the regional and international communities to overthrow the regime of Bashar al-Assad and resolve the Syrian crisis ultimately. However, the goal has not yet been realized until now and the seesaw battle still remains between Syrian government forces and the opposition. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that a war should be waged to finish the regime of Bashar.
Are Syria and Turkey being pushed to the brink of war? Some media outlets believe that Turkey’s harsher stance on Syria merely aims to send a “tough” signal to the Syrian regime, which indicates that Turkey will not wage a war against Syria. However, others believe that Turkish policies on the Syrian crisis are based on the intended purpose of overthrowing the current Syrian regime so the relations of the two countries cannot be retrieved. With the authorization of the Turkish parliament on the use of force and the support of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), war is most likely to break out.
Turkey’s attempt to undertake military operations against Syria is restricted by many factors. Firstly, countries such as Russia and Iran support the Syrian people in solving the crisis by themselves and oppose foreign intervention, while Western countries have not overtly proposed to resolve the Syrian crisis through external military intervention. Secondly, if Turkey starts a war, the Arab world will be worried about whether the Ottoman Empire is coming back, which exerts a negative impact on the image of Turkey. Thirdly, once the war occurs, the Syrian regime will back the Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan (PKK) to attack Turkey, thus causing an explosion of the domestic situation in Turkey.
In addition, Turkey must take several factors into consideration before waging a war against Syria. First, as allies of Syria, Iran, Russia and Iraq will not stand idle. Iran asserts that the security of the Syrian regime is closely related to the stability of Iran. Russia says it will veto any resolution of the U.N. Security Council on taking military action on Syria.
Second, Turkey should be clearly aware that it is impossible for NATO to coordinate Turkish military operations without the permission of the United States while the approaching presidential election makes it hard for the United States to make decisions on the issue. Thirdly, Syria still has a strong military capability, so Turkey must be ready to endure the possible devastating consequences if war does break out.